Odds and Sods

The Detroit Tigers announced that they are swapping corner infield positions, moving Miguel Cabrera to first base and Carlos Guillen to third.

The move makes tremendous sense.  Cabrera has been woeful this season at third.  He has five errors in 14 app at the position.  He is second to last in the major leagues in fielding percentage (.900) and third from bottom in zone rating (.683).

Given Cabrera’s combination of body-type and conditioning, his eventual destination will be first, and probably designated hitter toward the end of his deal with the Tigers.

Guillen was a shortstop until last season.  He played third regularly two separate times with the Mariners (2000, 2003).  Guillen is the better defensive player.  The move makes sense.

The only question, as Rob Neyer has asked, is why was this not ironed out in Spring Training?  How has this situation altered in three weeks?

Another team that may be looking for a first base switch is the Yankees.  Jason Giambi is below average, though not terrible with the glove.  But, his impotent bat has thus far made his starting spot untenable. 

His OPS (.660) is far below his steroid-fueled career average (.945) and even his injury addled ’07 number (.789).  He has just one home run against pitchers who are not Mike Timlin. 

The Yankees would like to get some value from him–since they cleverly back-loaded his deal to pay him $23,428,571 this season, but even with the extraordinary cost, his roster spot may be more valuable than his presence on the team.

Girardi’s question should not be if he is replaced, but who?  The obvious candidate should be Jeter. 

It is wrenching, I know, for New York to consider Capt. Jetes at any position but shortstop.  But, Jeter has to move at some point.  He will turn 34 in June.  Despite what gold glove voters say, the numbers show consistently that Jeter is just not that good in the field.  His third from bottom rating in MLB for range factor (3.71) and zone rating (.762) are the norm.

The Yankees have a viable shortstop replacement at hand with Alberto Gonzalez.  The understudy, 25, put up a solid (.911 OPS) numbers with the bat.  He is also far superior defensively, 5.24 RF and .871 ZR in the Major Leagues. 

They would be a better team moving Jeter to first and playing Gonzalez.  The one problem would be Jeter’s ego.  But, of course a gamer like Derek Jeter would never place his own well-being before the team?

Reporter’s wet dream Hank Steinbrenner has once again satiated a lustful media with a cantankerous sound bite about set-up man Joba Chamberlain, stemming from a disappointing 10-10 start.

“I want him as a starter and so does everyone else, including him” Steinbrenner told The New York Times. “There is no question about it, you don’t have a guy with a 100-mile-per-hour fastball and keep him as a set-up guy. You just don’t do that. You have to be an idiot to do that.”

Yankees GM Brian Cashman reiterated that Chamberlain would most likely finish the season as a starter, but would remain in the bullpen for now.

Conventional wisdom seems to support their decision, mostly because Chamberlain would presumably have a greater impact by pitching more innings in a starting role.  But, is this necessarily the case?

It is quite an assumption that Joba would automatically replicate his reliever form in the rotation.  In one-inning stints, he has not had to conserve energy, go through lineups more than once, or have to pitch strategically.  He could adapt perfectly, but there is no guarantee.

He could be another Eric Gagne who was a mediocre starter but dominant in the closing role.

The number of innings argument is also not entirely cogent.  For instance, in a five-game stretch, a starting Joba could have the best start possible, perfect game and 27 strikeouts.  But, he could only have an impact in one game.  The Yankees could go 1-4 over that stretch.  His effort could also be worthless if the Yankees score 15 runs.

But, as a reliever, say Joba pitches 3 innings in 3 appearances over the course of the five games.  In each game he holds leads, for Rivera to save in the ninth.  He may only pitch 1/3 the number of innings, but he has the potential to impact three times as many games.

Another factor should be the Yankees’ need.  Their starting pitching sparks no fear in opposing batters.  Does adding a third inexperienced starter into that rotation, presumably in Mussina’s spot, really affect the overall rotation that much?  Is that potential positive effect worth relying on Farnsworth and Hawkins in key setup situations?

The Red Sox faced a similar situation with Jonathan Papelbon entering the 2007 season.  He was a devastating closer in his rookie season, saving 35 games while allowing just seven earned runs in 68 1/3 innings.

Papelbon’s potential as a starter attracted the Red Sox ruminators to test him in the rotation.  However, he returned to the closer’s role and not coincidentally the team went on to win the AL East and the World Series.

Don’t mess with success is a tired but true maxim.  If someone has a truly elite gift at something, why tinker with it? Joba is a dominant reliever and the perfect heir apparent to an aging Mariano Rivera.  He could be the Yankees answer to Papelbon for the next ten seasons.  Why remove a square peg from a square hole because you can squeeze him into the round one with a little whittling?

Buster Olney is one of the best baseball writers in the business, but, perhaps, he may wish to reconsider this metaphor.

1. Boston Red Sox

Despite the same personnel, Boston’s lineup should improve.  David Ortiz is healthy.  Manny Ramirez is healthy and in a contract year.  Julio Lugo and J.D. Drew can only do better than last season’s performance.  Ellsbury certainly upgrades Crisp, the third worst hitting outfielder in baseball last season.  Even with Lowell’s likely lowering the team will likely score more runs.

April showers would be swell for the Red Sox who need some time to get healthy.  The long run rotation should be Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester, Buchholz and Wakefield, which is solid.  They also should have Schilling and Colon to swoop in like Fat Batman and Robin come August.

The bullpen should prove strong as well.  Papelbon is one of the best in the game.  Okajima, Delcarmen, and ever-steady Mike Timlin can take care of the setup duties.  They may need to bolster with an extra arm or two, however.

I may be a homer, but I was right last year.

2. New York Yankees

The Yankees should score in spades.  They have the statistical stud Alex Rodriguez in the middle, joined by a contract-year Bobby Abreu and Matsui.  New York also has good table-setter guys like Jeter, Cabrera, and Cano to get on base for them.  Posada will plummet down to earth.  His OPS last season was .109 above his career average.  He is 36 and has caught 137 or more games every season since 2000.  Damon does not look any younger and Giambi is a giant question mark.

World Series were won in New York with dominant pitching, once again they will go without.  Wang is a very good pitcher, but hardly a top of the rotation ace.  Mussina must be running on creeks and cobwebs.  Pettitte will not have overcome his heart-wrenching Roger Clemens breakup.  Hughes and Kennedy are young and gifted, but unproven and on pitch counts.

The bullpen is stellar at the top with future hall of famer, Mariano Rivera and heir-apparent Jaba Chamberlin.  But it slides downhill steeply from there.  Middle relief will be crucial for the team to reach the playoffs, necessitating that Farnsworth or Hawkins stands up.

3. Toronto Blue Jays

If Wells bounces back from his terrible ‘07, the trio of him, Thomas and Rios can put up some numbers.  Maybe they can get something out of Scott Rolen.  Most importantly though, they got David Eckstein to show off his championship rings, scrap and be a great character guy.  That’s guaranteed to put the Jays over the top.

As always, the Jays need Halladay and Burnett to be both productive and healthy.  Even if they both have Cy Young-caliber years, it may not be enough for Toronto to contend.

The bullpen is a bit of a question mark.  The big money man B.J. Ryan was injured and ineffective last season.  Accardo closed well in his absence, but the rest of the crew are mediocre.

They need to get rid of those black uniforms and go back to red and blue, hideous.

4. Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays

B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena could form the nucleus of a quite decent lineup.  After classily demoting Evan Longoria for a month to squeeze an extra year of service from him, they can be even better.  Cliff Floyd may thrive after mercifully moving to the American League and a cozy DH spot.

Tampa has three decent young starters with Shields, Kazmir and the newly acquired Matt Garza.  Three more than they have had for much of their existence.

After taking a year off in 2006, Percival was nearly unhittable in limited action with St. Louis last season.  He has always been one of the better closers in the game, except for his one year in Detroit.  It’s not unthinkable that he can do a job for Tampa this season.

Is it (Sun) Rays or (Sting) Rays?  I actually thought Devil Rays was a decent name, they just have bland uniforms and a craptastic stadium.

5. Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles’ clubhouse was the performance enhancing drugs equivalent of Studio 54 and they couldn’t hit then.  The only sight to see will be youngster Nick Markakis, unless you like helpless flailing and shanking balls 20 feet foul – making Millar your man.

Who needs Eric Bedard?  The Orioles have Steve Trachsel, bitches!  Loewen may suffer from being rushed too soon.  The rest of them aren’t worth much.

The bullpen isn’t particularly great.  Sherrill has been a competent reliever, but has never closed.

The Orioles will struggle to fill seats in the Summer, when they aren’t playing Boston.  They have no problem with recovering steroid users.  They need some offense.  Barry Bonds come on down!

America’s favorite I.R.S. agent on a power trip, Jeff Novitzky, has widened his invasive probe into the shadier side of Roger Clemens.

The Feds are investigating a potential link between Clemens and the Shaun Kelly Weight Control center.

Kelley denies involvement with performance-enhancing drugs, though according to the New York Times he has both acknowledged using HGH and has advertised it on his website.

According to a former employee, Clemens introduced himself as a friend of Kelley and spent 20 minutes alone with him in his office.  Kelley, when questioned by the Times, stated that Clemens was an acquaintance said they had met “a couple of times.”  Though, he denies meeting Clemens in his store.