Odds and Sods

It’s squeaky bum time in the Premier League, with two matches left to play.  There is the ever exciting battle between underwhelming uberclubs for the title.  Yawn.  The second tier battle to see which club can send itself careening down next year’s table for the right to lose to a Spanish club in the UEFA Cup semifinals.  Bigger Yawn.

Like a Kim Kardashian sex tape, the most exciting action will be at the bottom, with six clubs grappling desperately to be one of the four that avoid relegation to the demented morass that is the Championship.  There is nothing that motivates footballers more than having to trade their prawn cocktails, exclusive parties and high-class prostitutes for a bacon sandwich, a bar wench and a rainy night in Sheffield.

Here is how the teams look with two games to play.

Wigan Athletic

The Latics currently sit 14th on 37 points.  They are on a strong run, earning seven points from their last four matches, and they need just one point from the remaining two matches to secure the status quo.  That will be a tough task, however, as they must travel to Aston Villa, who are fighting for a UEFA Cup place and then host Manchester United on the final day, with the title on the line.  But, even if they don’t get the magical point, it is hard to see fate relegating Wigan.  It would require Bolton, Birmingham, and Reading to win their remaining two matches, and for Middlesbrough to take at least one point from their remaining two and to pass Wigan on goal difference.  Not a likely scenario.

Middlesbrough

Southgate’s men will probably be safe though not from their own exertion, having won just one of their last ten, including crushing defeats to Bolton and Sunderland, when results would have all but secured their place.  They would need a win to clinch, or a point to pretty much assure.  Away at Portsmouth, with Pompey still in contention for Europe, might be a reach, but Man City look ripe for plucking a result with their recent form.  Even if they lose both, 36 pts would likely still keep them up.

Bolton

Bolton looked dead and down when they took just one point from seven matches through February and March, but seven points from their last three matches leaves them one point above the drop zone.  They look like a safe bet to get three, with safe Sunderland at home next week.  Though, they will surely drop points the last day of the season at Stamford Bridge.  If they get a win against Sunderland, they will likely be safe.  If not, they could be in grave danger.

Reading

Reading are holding their noses above water as well, one point from the drop.  Winning just three of their past eighteen matches has not helped their cause.  They have the lowest goal difference of any of the relegation candidates, so they will likely need to go through on points.  However, they have the easiest run in of any of the clubs.  They face a Tottenham team who are already planning for vacations at home, and then face bottom feeder Derby, winner of just one match all season, at Pride Park.  Coppell’s men would like six points, though four would probably keep them up.

Birmingham

Bongo FC blew a bountiful chance by letting Liverpool skulk away with a 2-2 draw.  They will likely need to win both their relegation six pointer with Fulham and their match against an aimless Blackburn at home to ensure their Premier League status.  They do have an advantage over the clubs on goal difference, however.

Fulham

Fulham have the hardest road, needing to win both their matches to bump them to 36 points and get some help.  They face Birmingham in the aforementioned six pointer, and also face Portsmouth at home.  Everton and Aston Villa next week could be key, as their performances may dictate whether the last match of the season will be a meaningful one for Portsmouth.  It will certainly take one of those mythical Brian McBride miracles for Premier League football to be played at Craven Cottage next year.

Prediction

Birmingham and Fulham will be relegated.  I can see Fulham winning the relegation six pointer with Birmingham, but I am not confident they can take the three points at Portsmouth, leaving them at 33/34.  I don’t think Birmingham gets more than one point from the next two matches, leaving them on 33.  I think Reading gets four points to 37 and escapes.  I think Bolton will draw Sunderland and lose to Chelsea leaving them on 34.  I see Bolton beating out Fulham and Birmingham either by one point or by goal difference.

Arsenal Reserves drew Liverpool Reserves 1-1 in a Saturday thriller.  Rafa went with Jermaine Pennant and frisky Peter Crouch.  Arsene started two English lads.  Liverpool should have put the match away earlier.  Crouch had a brilliant effort saved.  Riise missed a sitter with his footballingly handicapped foot.  Benayoun missed another.  Even with United’s draw, the match killed Arsenal’s minute title hopes.  See you at Anfield for round three.

Middlesbrough retained the title of big club bully by holding Man United 2-2 at the Riverside.  Sir Alex sent out a stronger side than at midweek.  They got outplayed.  Alfonso Alves at last lived up to his transfer fee, scoring two.  Had they a competent partner rather than Aliadiere they would have had at least two or three more goals.  Ferdinand looked flummoxed without Vidic at his side.

Aston Villa blew out Bolton 4-0.  England cuspers Gareth Barry and Gabby Agbonlahor served up three with a cherry from Marlon Harewood.  Bolton’s defending was dreadful.  Davies and Diouf did not communicate.  The Wanderers look doomed.

Sunderland beat Fulham 3-1, in a relegation six-pointer.  The win puts Sunderland on 36 points, 10 points clear.  Fulham remain on twenty-four with fate fast approaching.  Brian McBride can count to infinity twice, but it won’t keep Fulham up.  All credit should go to Roy Keane for the wonders he’s done with the worst squad in the League besides Derby.

Manchester United 3 – Liverpool 0: The scoreline was unfair, United should have won by more. Rooney and Ronaldo combined for five fluffed chances. Captain Stevie disappeared twice for the Reds. First, when he decided to stop running and not defend on the Wes Brown goal. Second, when he failed to get between the referee and Mascherano before the second yellow card. Javier’s post-sendoff Latin shrug produced the lasting picture for the match. He deserved the red, but Bennett would not have sent him if off at Anfield or if he was English. Being the big man is easy with a crowd behind you.

Chelsea 2 - Arsenal 1: The Gunners have dropped eleven points to United in five matches – having not won in the league since Feb. 11. Once five points clear, they reside six points behind, seven with goal difference. Chelsea passed Arsenal into second, which is likely how it will stay. Gallas’ decision-making at the back was shocking. His captaincy requires more than rash rhetoric, alpha-male displays and a stegosaurus hairdo. A decade in the team is pure Arsene, but maybe that’s not such a great thing.

Newcastle 2 - Fulham o: Newcastle finally get a win under Keegan. The same lot who heaved Allardyce for not getting to Europe are now erupting like loonies when they beat the 19th place side at home. Keegan’s last remaining gray hairs will hang on for another week. Fulham have not won away since 2006, I blame their away kits. Whatever marketing flunkie chose baby blue from head to toe should be fired.

Reading 2 - Birmingham 1: Reading came out on top in the other relegation six pointer, pushing themselves five points safe. Memo to Andre Bikey: you must meaningfully manipulate the ball on a goal before celebrating with a flip.

Fulham FC sprang back to life on Sunday, with a startling 1-0 victory over European-bound Everton.

The win, Fulham’s fourth of the season, places gives them 23 pts – an effective four points away from safety.

However, Odds and Sods will now make a bold prediction.  Fulham will not be relegated.

The club has momentum.

Fulham finally has started to mesh in this latter part of the season, spurred by the return of Jimmy Bullard and Brian McBride.  They have also had an impressive run, earning four points from two grueling fixtures against top half opposition in Everton and Blackburn.

The club was unlucky at the onset, bafflingly blowing a few first-half leads, followed by a morbid holiday respite – lasting through Februrary.  Fulham are a decent side with extraordinarily bad luck.  They are due for some good football.

Fulham also have an easier schedule.

They do face a problem.  They have only three home matches remaining and have not won away all season.  However, two winnable relegation six-pointers come in the next two away matches at Newcastle (Mar. 22) and at Derby (Mar 29.).  They also have additional six-pointers with Sunderland and Birmingham at home and Reading away.  Should Fulham climb the table it will come at the direct expense of their fellow bottom dwellers.

The only top four side that Fulham play is Liverpool at home (Apr. 19) – who may be conserving players for a Champions League run.

If Fulham finagles four points, from the next two matches.  That leaves them with 27 pts with six matches remaining.  If they again get four from Sunderland and Birmingham at home, that is 31 pts.  It’s not unreasonable they get four pts from the other four matches amassing the total 35 pts.  That may be enough to keep them up, particularly with some help.

That estimate also assumes merely a reasonable level of competence, not an impressive run.

Bolton have a much tougher road.  They still must travel to Man Utd., Chelsea, Aston Villa and Tottenham.  They also host Arsenal and Man City.  They have only one relegation six-pointer at home to Sunderland (May 3.).  Relegation seems a certainty at this point.

Birmingham have a slightly less arduous schedule, but still must host Liverpool, Man City, Blackburn and Everton.

Sunderland still have to host Man City and Arsenal and travel to Aston Villa.

Any fixture poses a problem for the soccer circus at this point.  But Newcastle face away matches with Tottenham, West Ham, Portsmouth and Everton.  They also host Chelsea in the penultimate match.

It’s not impossible that one or two teams from this group take a tumble, opening a door for Fulham.

They do have the fewest points, but they have the edge in talent and the easiest schedule.  If Fulham can denounce their doldrums and play at close to their potential, there is no reason they can’t avoid the drop.

Birmingham 4 - Tottenham 1 Spurs tried on the big boy pants, only to end up wearing them around their ankles. They had a sick party last weekend. This weekend they were simply sick. The rear guard is rubbish. Robinson has evolved from awfully fat to just awful. They are closer to the relegation zone than to tenth place. Pop goes the bombastic balloon.

Arsenal 1 - Aston Villa 1 Arsenal added to a terrible two weeks with this stinker. Walcott was wonderful. Senderos was dreadful. None of the other players decided to show up. Only luck kept Villa from putting this one away with a second goal.  The absence of goal minded players (Van Persie, Eduardo, Rosicky) has left the Arsenal attack impotent, with no one capitalizing upon their superb set-up play.

Bendtner’s substitution seemed quite odd.  Personal issues aside, he and Adebayor cross paths on the pitch because they play the same role in the same position.  This change also neutralized Walcott who had been Arsenal’s most dangerous player in the first sixty minutes.  The crucial goal came from fortune, not inspired strategy.

Fulham 0 - Manchester United 3 United came up fruitful for the first time visiting London this season.  The scoreline does not flatter Fulham, who acquitted themselves admirably.  For a club out-manned, they needed all of the luck, but received none of it, left vacant after a cavalcade of close calls.   Eddie Johnson has not yet earned the right to wear orange boots in the Premier League.

Everton 3 - Portsmouth 1 The Toffees kept the pressure on their cross-town rivals with this victory, keeping their 3 pt lead for a Champions League place.  Yakubu was in the mood and Pompey got the business end of it.  He was a far more prudent investment than Dirk Kuyt.