Odds and Sods

Alex Rodriguez may have implicated himself unintentionally in a performance-enhancing drug scandal.

Rodriguez, attempting to praise MLB’s policy, told reporters that he had been tested “9 to 10 times” during the past season.  He later changed his estimate  to “7 to 10″ tests.

“My quote from earlier today was taken literally,” Rodriguez told reporters.  “I was not tested 9 to 10 times last year.  My intent was simply to shed light on the fact that the current program being implemented is working.”

All 1,200 MLB players are tested at least twice during the season.  The league conducts an additional 600 regular season tests at random and another 60 tests during the post-season.

Players who fail steroid tests - all of whom are publicly identified - receive additional tests.  Amphetamine users, who are not identified publicly for a first positive test, qualify for increased testing.  MLB may also - with the approval of a small committee - subject players it suspects may be using performance-enhancing drugs.

When asked if he had tested positive for amphetamines, Rodriguez called the allegations “100 percent false.”

Rodriguez automatically received two tests during the season.  The odds of the league testing a player an additional five times at random are 1 in 4,200.  For eight additional random tests, the odds fall to 1 in 9,000,000.

“The third baseman” produced the best season of his career in 2007, hitting .314 with 54 HR and 156 RBI.  He also had a .422 OBP and a career-high 1.067 OPS.  With Yankee Stadium’s dimensions taken into account, his season may be the best ever from a right-handed hitter.

Here is a stellar specimen of journalism provided by the New York Post.

How’s this for junk science - even with three Gold Gloves, Yankees captain Derek Jeter has been labeled the worst fielding shortstop in baseball.

What do those eggheads know anyway? With their fancy book learning! Jeter has been anointed by the most objective analysis available, the opinions of baseball beat writers. This statistical study was purely a smear campaign intended to “label” Jeter as something he is not.

But the numbers prove it, researchers at the University of Pennsylvania said yesterday at the American Association for the Advancement of Science, in (of course) Boston.

Yes, of course the researchers at the University of Pennsylvania altered the results of their study because of the city at which they would be presenting the results.

Using a complex statistical method, researchers concluded that Alex Rodriguez was one of the best shortstops in the game when he played for the Texas Rangers.

“Complex” means that you didn’t bother to read it. Even by your everyman standards of gold gloves, his two gold gloves during that period (2002,2003) at Shortstop would have proven that. It was also the general consensus when he was traded to the Yankees.

Obviously, we need an expert to analyze this study. Take it away “Yankees fan Mike.”

“I don’t know what they’re smoking down at Penn,” said Yankees fan Mike.

Birch 32. “That’s preposterous. I completely disagree. Jeter’s a clutch player.”

2007 ALDS

Alex Rodriguez: .820 OPS

Derek Jeter: .352 OPS

“It’s ridiculous,” said fan Jay Ricker. “Jeter is all-around awesome. He’s better than A-Rod any day. Character has a lot to do with it. He’s out there for his teammates.”

Career Stats

Alex Rodriguez: .967 OPS, 518 HR

Derek Jeter: .851 OPS, 195 HR

Their last season fielding together at SS was 2003. Among Major League Shorstops, Jeter was third from bottom in fielding percentage and dead last by a large margin in both range factor and zone rating. Rodriguez was 1st in fielding percentage, and 9th in zone rating and range factor.

In fact, in most seasons Jeter has ranked last or next to last in both zone rating and range factor.

But, as Yankee fan Brittnay Thompson, 32, said, “It’s about who’s good in May and who’s good in October.”

2007 May Stats

Alex Rodriguez: .235 BA 5 HR 11RBI .782 OPS (by far worst month of the season)

Derek Jeter: .342 BA 1HR 20RBI .912 OPS (by far best month of the season)

2007 September Stats

Alex Rodriguez: .362 10 HR 31 RBI 1.193 OPS

Derek Jeter: .311 3HR 14 RBI .858 OPS

Alex Rodriguez had one of the greatest seasons ever by a right-handed batter.  He hit .314 with 54 HR and 156 RBI.  He had a .422 OBP and a 1.067 OPS.  And, he did all of this while playing in one of the most unfriendly parks for right-handed hitters in the game at Yankee stadium.  He also stole 24 bases just for the hell of it.

Not surprisingly, he won the American League MVP award in a landslide.  He earned 26 out of 28 first place votes from writers in AL cities.  Two writers bucked the trend and voted for Magglio Ordonez of the Tigers in first.  Tom Gage of the Detroit News and Jim Hawkins of the Oakland (Mich) Press.  Coincidence?  I think not.

Magglio had a fine year, but he simply wasn’t as good of a player as Alex Rodriguez.  He did edge him in batting average (.363 to .314) but when the more indicative on base percentage is included the disparity (.434 to .422) is far less.   A-Rod beat Ordonez in slugging percentage (.645 to .595) and overall OPS (1.067 to 1.029).  He hit nearly twice as many home runs (54 to 28), crushed him in stolen bases (24 to 4), and drove in 17 more runs.

Both players had fine offensive seasons, but nothing about them bucks the conventional wisdom that Alex Rodriguez was a better player than Magglio Ordonez.

There is the “intangible” and “valuable” factor.  But that should go to A-Rod as well.  The Yankees made the playoffs and the Tigers collapsed down the stretch.

How do the writers defend themselves?

Tom Gage - I saw an MVP year there were stats to back up the impression that I came away with during the regular season.

Jim Hawkins - I saw Magglio play every day.  What I saw was a player having an MVP year.

That’s brilliant.  Magglio is an MVP because he is an MVP.

Tom Gage - Home Runs are a glamor stat.  Home Runs and RBI grab everyone’s attention, but why isn’t it equally impressive that Magglio had a .363 batting average - the highest by a Tiger since Norm Cash in 1961.

This may be a long shot.  But, perhaps more focus is placed on home runs and RBI than batting average because they are more important!  Magglio had 30 more hits than A-Rod did, but A-Rod had 20 more walks than Magglio did.  There is a disparity with their batting average, but hardly any with their on base percentage.

Jim Hawkins - You have to ask yourself where the Yankees would have finished without A-Rod and where the Tigers would have finished without Ordonez.  A-Rod had a better supporting cast than Magglio did.  I know for a fact that the Tigers would not have been anywhere close and certainly not in wild card competition without Magglio.

First, it’s comical to even suggest that one can hypothetically calculate how a team would have performed in terms of wins and losses with another player playing said position, let alone stating that you know such a thing for a fact.

Second, even under the assumption that one could calculate something not possible to calculate, A-Rod would still be more important.  Replacing A-Rod with an average player at third base may have cost the Yankees the wild card.  Replacing Magglio in the Tigers lineup would have brought them from not contending to not contending even worse.

Tom Gage - (Ordonez) had the finest season I’ve ever seen a Tiger have since I’ve covered baseball.

Ok, so why exactly is the History of the Tigers in the last thirty or so years relevant to the 2007 MVP discussion?  Even using that false logic, A-Rod probably had the best season any Yankee has had during that same time period.  And there have been a lot better players playing for the Yankees.

These votes were nothing other than blatant homerism.  In the age of 24 hour ESPN, the extra innings package and the internet having no knowledge of what is going on in the rest of the league, when it is your job is inexcusable.  Localism is not relevant anymore and the Baseball Writers Association should adjust to a merit rather than locale based voting system.

That said, just because the voting system is not designed to guard against idiocy does not absolve these two writers for being idiots.  It is one thing to be a homer in a venue that doesn’t count, but MVP voting should be held to a higher standard than “he played for the local nine and looked good so I am going to vote for him.”  The actions of Tom Gage and Jim Winters were inappropriate and inexcusable and their voting rights should be taken away.

Jimmy Rollins won the National League MVP award.  Fair play to him.  One Problem.

It’s November 20th!

Michigan has already played Ohio State.  People’s thoughts are wrapped up with turkey, football, and family.  No one cares about this!

What compelling reason could baseball have for announcing their regular season MVP and Cy Young awards 50 days after the end of the regular season and  23 days after the Red Sox won the World Series?

Baseball maintains that the post-season is not taken into account in the determination of the award.  The votes are taken immediately after the regular season ends.  What is the point of sealing them and then releasing them almost two months later?

The post-season doesn’t count for the awards, but it certainly colors everyone’s mindset.  No one would argue  with C.C. Sabathia’s numbers in the regular season giving him the nod for the Cy Young.  But, Josh Beckett and the Red Sox’ lineup making him look silly in the ALCS cheapens it a bit.

Similarly, Jimmy Rollins had a fabulous season and there isn’t much to complain about with him winning the NL MVP.  But, it looks rather ridiculous after the Phillies were unceremoniously swept out of the playoffs and Matt Holliday led the Rockies to the World Series.

What are more people talking about?  Alex Rodriguez winning the MVP?  Or, Alex Rodriguez’ contract dealings?

The awards are undeniably overshadowed by what happens in the post-season.  They are overshadowed by football and everything else going on during the holiday season.  They are even overshadowed by baseball’s own hot stove.

The simple solution is just to announce the awards right after the votes are in.  There is a two day period between the end of the regular season and the beginning of the playoffs.  Everyone during that period is excited and talking baseball.  It wouldn’t overshadow the playoffs because it’s not that important and also because most often the players discussed are on playoff teams.  It would be the time where the awards would get the most attention and they would be the most relevant.

It just plain makes sense, which is why Bud Selig will never do it.

Major League Baseball had its best season ever in 2007, bringing in more than $6 billion in revenue.  This fact, combined with the paucity of quality free agents available, should, prove, according to conventional wisdom, to be a bonanza for potential free agents.

Even a painfully mediocre pitcher like Carlos Silva could command a five-year $50 million contract.

However, the poor free agent market could also drastically increase the trade market.  With no quality free agents available, the price for a marquee asset should theoretically skyrocket.

This was certainly the thought of Team Boras who pulled their marquee slugger out of his Yankee contract.  Coming off arguably the best season for a right-handed hitter ever and having the commercial clout that will come with his challenge of the home run record combined with being the only impact player available should theoretically create the perfect storm to make A-Rod a very, very wealthy man.

The Twins will have the same thought with uber-starter Johan Santana.  He can be a free agent at the end of the season and they are almost certainly not going to be able to afford him.  Putting the best pitcher in the game not named Josh Beckett on the market, should theoretically bring their choice of packages of 3-4 of the finest prospects.

Theoretically, both Team Boras and the Twins should come out rich.  Unfortunately for them, they aren’t the only teams that had this idea.

Alex Rodriguez assumed that he would be alone, but that may not be the case.  The Marlins will investigate the market for Miguel Cabrera.  He is not a health nut, but he’s eight years younger and puts up eerily similar offensive stats.

If a team doesn’t want to part with their entire cupboard of elite prospects or spending money for the next ten years for a third baseman, there are cheaper options as well.  The White Sox will be looking to deal Joe Crede.  Baltimore’s B-12 shot bomber Miguel Tejada would undoubtedly enjoy a move to a different team and to a less physically demanding position.  The Cardinals have also discussed trading Scott Rolen.  And, oh yeah, the World Series MVP Mike Lowell is also a free agent.  With a host of cheaper options, A-Rod will probably have to respond to the market rather than dictate it.

The same thing could happen with the pitching market.  The Devil Rays may attempt to unload their own “Cabrera” with left-hander Scott Kazmir.  The A’s may be shopping Dan Haren for a collection of prospects.  The Padres have at least discussed making a Jake Peavy deal with the Yankees.  There is also the possibility that the Tigers or the Giants could cast a young arm out into the pond to see what they can reel back.

None of these guys are Santana, but they aren’t bad options at a lesser price.

The market appears to be the perfect storm for players and teams ready to unload them.  However, with the potentially abundant trade market, the market could become saturated with talent, driving down the demand and, ultimately, the price for the elite player.

This party advertises hot girls and free beer, but there is a high probability it will end up being a sausage fest.