Daisuke Lacking Control and Confidence
Red Sox starter Daisuke Matsuzaka has had an exceedingly strange statistical season so far, as seen last night in his two hit, one earned run, one strikeout, eight walk five-inning victory.
By many measures, he has been dominant. His record is 5-0 (with a two-hit seven inning shutout performance counted as a no-decision). His ERA is spectacular (2.43) and he has held opponents to just 22 hits in 40.2 innings pitched (.158 BAA). His pitching has been all but unhittable.
At the same time, however, he has lacked consistent control. He has more walks allowed than hits (27-22). His strikeout-walk ratio 33-27 is nearly 1-1, when his career numbers in Japan and his first season were closer to 3-1. He has thrown so many pitches that he has pitched seven innings once. He also has managed just 11 strikeouts in his past four starts (22 1/3 innings).
Matsuzaka has been effective, but, at the same time, quite worrisome, with his success masking serious control issues. Over the long season, they will need him to hit seven innings consistently to save the bullpen, something that will require a more direct approach.
The problem may be mechanical, but it seems more likely to be one of confidence. Control issues were a problem for Matsuzaka during his first two seasons in Japan. He initially posted strikeout-walk ratios around 7-5 in his first two seasons, before escalating to the nearly 10-1 ratio in 2006, his last season–a feat Sox fans will hope he can replicate.
With his fastball and array of breaking pitches, Dice-K has always been difficult to hit. But to be dominant, he needs to regain control and confidence.
