National League West Preview
This has been the hardest division to pick so far, as any team except San Francisco can either win or finish fourth.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have great lineup potential, particularly with Nomar out of the picture. They have four developing young hitters who could explode this season with Martin, Loney, Ethier, and Kemp. They have two craggy contributing veterans with Kemp and Andruw Jones (who is somehow listed as 30 and only 210lb). This should, theoretically, account for the wasteful speed guys, Pierre and Furcal, who can’t get on base.
Their rotation should be competent as well. Penny had a Cy Young caliber year. Lowe and Billingsley had decent years. If Loaiza can stay healthy, he should be an acceptable fifth starter.
LA’s pen will provide the edge. Saito was sick last season, in the good way. He had 78K in 64.1 innings and a stingy 0.72 WHIP. Broxton has a beastly arm in the set-up role. If Torre doesn’t work them to death by May, they should be quite good. Scott Proctor is not a happy man. The over-under on his arm detaching from his body on the mound should be June 21st.
2. Colorado Rockies
The Rockies won everyone’s praises before being discretely disposed of by the Red Sox in the World Series, but they rode a wave of luck to get there.
Their lineup that has Holliday, Hawpe, Helton and Tulowitzki looks to be hell for opposing pitchers.
The pitching is not quite playoff caliber though. Francis has never lived up to his potential. Jimenez has an incredible arm. But, neither of them are imposing, and the three through five slots are decidedly mediocre.
The bullpen should be pretty good. Corpas closed efficiently last season with a 1.06 WHIP. Fuentes provides another excellent setup man.
The Rockies have a chance, as long as the Humidor is working.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona’s lineup perpetually looms with potential, but has not displayed it as of yet. Young stud Stephen Drew had a .683 OPS and super-prospect Justin Upton had only a .647 OPS. Eric Young hit 32 homers, but he only managed a .295 OBP.
Brandon Webb may be the best starter in the National League. They feel they acquired one of the best in the American League last season with Danny Haren, though he was only 5-6 with a 4.15 ERA after the all-star break as opposed to 10-3 with a 2.30 ERA before. Owings and Davis give them an average four and five slots. The difference, positively or negatively, will be Randy Johnson.
The bullpen trio of Pena, Qualls, and Cruz are solid, but Brandon Lyon has never consistently manned the closer’s job. He isn’t a big strikeout guy, only 40K in 74IP last season. That spot could be dicey.
The Diamondbacks won the division last season with a 90-72 record, but they were extraordinarily lucky, as their expected W-L record was 79-83. If the young players do not markedly improve, that could be where they end up.
4. San Diego Padres
The Padres have the pitching to win the division, but their lineup will likely keep them from accomplishing it. There is a marked drop in quality after Adrian Gonzalez. They will need big years from Giles and Kouzmanoff to supplement his production.
They may have the best 1-2 punch in the division with Peavy and Chris Young. But, Greg Maddux isn’t getting any younger and Randy Wolf is decidedly mediocre. The Padres will need an exorcism to remove Mark Pryor’s Pox.
The bullpen should be decent. Hoffman is old, but gets the job done. Bell was stunning last season (0.96 WHIP) and former Red Sock Cla Meredith turned out well.
5. San Francisco Giants
They have the worst lineup in baseball. They lost the last vestiges of power, through Pedro Feliz and Barry Bonds. They signed Rowand to a dummy deal after a contract year. They could potentially have neither a 20HR hitter or a 20 SB stealer. Uninspiring and old, they are.
The other Barry, Zito, only performed one task consistently last season, not living up to his gynormous contract. The rotation could be good if Zito returns to his above-average left-hander form and the Baseball America babes Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum start to produce. But, it won’t matter when they don’t score any runs.
Ditto with the bullpen.
sad to waste arms like Cain and Lincenum on such a crappy Giants lineup.
I see the D’backs winning the division. There’s just something about that lineup that allows them to win. The addition of Haren’s nicely coiffed beard is sure to help. Justin Upton is my NL ROY pick. Besides, the Rockies just got lucky last year (thank you Eric Byrnes)
The D-Backs were extremely lucky last year as well (90 wins when their expected W-L was 79-83). The Rockies were about even. I haven’t seen enough tangible production to anoint them yet.