1. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are not very good, but they are less bad than the other teams in this terrible division.
Their lineup has a murdering middle with Lee, Ramirez and Soriano, but little else to laud over. Fukudome is 30 with no power and no speed. Felix the cat can’t hit. And they will rely on merry dogooders like Ryan Theriot who provide moxy, clubhouse presence and joie de vivre – while not getting on base – to set the table.
The pitching will worry them more. Carlos Zambrano should be unstable mentally but fine. The law of averages could fell both Hill and Lilly who pitched well above their median last season. A recycled Jon Lieber and a revamped Ryan Dempster round out the mediocre lot.
Chicago has a decent bullpen. Twenty-five year-old Carlos Marmol was filthy last season, with a 1.43 ERA and 96 strikeouts in 69.1 innings. For them to transcend, however, they need the most maligned arm in Chicago – not attached to the Sex Cannon – to resurge.
Kerry Wood has obliged thus far, hitting the mid to upper 90’s during Spring Training. But, he ever remains one pitch away from his forearm detaching and dementedly spiraling toward home, ball in hand.
Expect another pointless pennant in Wrigley Field, or Corporate America Den of Iniquity or whatever the place is going to be called.
2. Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers were every baseball buff’s sleeper last season – including Odds and Sods – and almost made pompous geniouses of us all. But, they have stayed pat, which may prove painful.
Milwaukee has a potent lineup of young stars. They have appropriately named Ryan Braun (1.004 OPS last season), J.J. Hardy, and Vegetarian Prince Fielder, who hopefully will be as good as the regular model. Rickie Weeks, when he isn’t injured, is a haughty hitting second baseman. They will score some runs.
Pallid pitching may cost them, however. Ben Sheets hasn’t pitched a full season since stellar 2004. The rest of the rotation are recycled rejects and unproven, and unheralded, kids.
The bullpen will cause them to go far or gird their loins. The juice is loose for Eric Gagne. His strikeout numbers were excellent last season. His command and velocity were all over the place. Turnbow has been both tremendous and inept in recent years. David Riske is the second most apropos Brewer.
Their lineup will help them. Their pitching will not. But, having a pulse is good for second in the Central.
3. Cincinnati Reds
The Reds scream sleeper but for their manager this season, Dusty Baker.
Look at their lineup! They have Adam “No one realizes I have a freaking .900 Career OPS” Dunn. Ken Griffey Jr. still hits 30 HR per season. Brandon Phillips had 30 HR last year as a second baseman. Twenty-four year-old Joey Votto can be a .900+OPS and 30 HR guy as well if he gets the at bats. Jeff Keppinger who hit .332 and had a .400 OBP last season in 241 at bats would seam like a great top of the order guy.
But, the brain of Dusty Baker will lead this club into oblivion. He will inexplicably tell Adam Dunn to be more aggressive. He will ride Griffey like a plow-horse until his fragile knees go in July. He will start Hatteburg over Votto for “experience” and “veteran leadership.” And he will start .694 career OPS Alex Gonzalez over .806 career OPS Keppinger for no discernable reason.
Their Baker hamstrung lineup will have to out hit opponents, because their pitching is not too spectacular. Assonance-spawn Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo are decent. Matt Belisle is not, and youngsters Edinson Volquez and Johnny Ceuto will get thrown to the wolves.
Francisco Cordero is a competent closer, but getting to him will be an adventure.
4. Houston Astros
Berkman and Carlos Lee bang with the best. They have a couple nice complement hitters like Pence, Loretta, and an undoubtedly slimmer Miguel Tejada. They will score.
Roy Oswalt is a perennial Cy Young candidate. I am as shocked and amazed at you that it is Wandy (not Juande) Rodriguez. Woody Williams is a nice veteran. Brandon Backe has looked good the past two seasons, though he has only made 13 starts combined, so that is worrisome. The rotation isn’t bad, but they really could use an additional arm.
If the bullpen avoids a Brocail breakdown, they should be fine. Valverde was dominant, saving 47 games last season.
5. St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis won only 78 games last season and, based on their expected W-L they were extraordinarily lucky to have done so. This year, they will be worse.
Albert Pujols has a “high-grade tear” of a ligament in his elbow, which requires extensive reconstructive surgery. It is not a question of if, but when. One doubts whether La Russa’s plan to rest him 2-3 days a month will cut it.
The rest of their lineup just stinks. Glaus, being forced into the field, may suffer unless La Russa can discretely slip steroids into his locker. Ditto for Rick Ankiel. Adam Kennedy is a scrappy white guy – a scrappy white guy who had a horrific .572 OPS last year. Chris Duncan may cobble together some hits. That’s about it.
For the pitching rotation, Wainwright had a good year. Looper, Piniero, Reyes and Lohse, not so much.
The bullpen is reasonably competent, but old. Isringhausen is also an ever-present health risk.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Steelers’ season starts in September.
