Odds and Sods

Derek Jeter may be “The Captain,” but the truly crucial figure in the Yankees’ success over the past decade has been Mariano Rivera.  The lineup has converted from a crafty “small-ball” side into a power-hitting dynamo with all-stars at every position.  The rotation has gone from a fearsome force, to above average, to, in some spots, a liability.  Yet, the one constant that has kept the team successful and probably the one factor that has given them a consistent edge over their northern rivals, has been Mariano Rivera.

Time and time again he has been there to shut the door on the 2-1 games throughout the season and into the playoffs.  He has racked up incredible numbers.  413 saves in 10 seasons as a closer.  Barring his rookie season, he has never had an ERA above 2.85, and has posted one below 2.00 seven times, including the last four seasons.  In the playoffs, he has only been more dominant, posting 34 saves in 73 appearances with an 8-1 record and a stingy 0.80 ERA.  Traditionally, relievers have had trouble getting into the hall of fame, but Rivera will almost assuredly be in on the first ballot.

However, as Buster Olney writes, old reliable may finally be breaking down in the Bronx.  Rivera has been, quite frankly, terrible at the start of 2007.  In six appearances, he has a 1-2 record with two blown saves in as many opportunities, including blowing a 6-2 lead in the 8th inning against Boston last Friday.  Though he has only thrown 5 1/3 innings, he has a gaudy 8.44 ERA.

Conventional wisdom would dictate a decline due to age, 37 years old, and being simply worn down.  However, his numbers do not really bear that out.  Rather than showing decline, he has been remarkably consistent over the past four seasons.  In each he pitched between 70-80 innings, posted an ERA of 1.38-1.94, and allowed between 50-65 hits and 10-20 walks.  His October onus has also been rather light of late, pitching only 4 innings the past two seasons where the Yankees were eliminated in the Division series.  The numbers indicate quite clearly that this is not merely a gradual injury due to age.

More worrisome issues are of the subjective variety.  Rivera throws essentially one pitch, a unique and devastating cut-fastball.  The ball has traditionally traveled about 95 mph and broken down and in to left-handed batters and down and away from right handed batters.  Even when anticipating that pitch, batters still have had a terrible time trying to get a handle of it.

On Friday against Boston, though, that did not prove to be the case.  Rivera’s velocity ranged “on the low side” at 88-93.  He lacked command.  And, most worryingly, his cutter had a much milder break that was similar to an ordinary slider.  Since Mariano relies almost entirely on the one pitch, he becomes EXTREMELY hittable when that one pitch isn’t working.  He also lacks the flexibility to shift the focus to other pitches and make adjustments to compensate.

He also has been known for keeping a cool head, and prides himself on showing zero emotion to the batter.  Yet, on Friday, after giving up two straight hits, he threw an intentional fastball over the head of Julio Lugo, a sign that he is frustrated.  Though, it remains unclear what exactly the source of that frustration is.

This could be merely a bad stretch.  Rivera has only been used sporadically, and may not have developed a regular rhythm yet.  He has been significantly worse against Boston, who has many hitters who have faced Rivera numerous times in the regular and postseason and have an easier time without the element of surprise.  So, it may have just been a bad night.

But, the shadow of doubt still remains.  The Yankees haven’t been plagued by bullpen worries, as nearly every other club has, for more than a decade.  That assurance and that comfort zone that Rivera provides gives the team confidence and endows Joe Torre with the flexibility to do things that he otherwise could not do.  If Rivera cannot recover his form, the Yankees may be in serious trouble.  With Boston looking dominant in the early going and the AL Central loaded with wild card contenders, this may be the year that the Yankees’ impressive run of playoff appearances finally ends.